`Olive Oil Demand Expected to Grow Alongside Supply - Olive Oil Times
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Olive Oil Demand Expected to Grow Alongside Supply

By Paolo DeAndreis
Feb. 7, 2025 14:39 UTC

Global olive oil con­sump­tion may be on the path to recov­ery.

According to the lat­est data from the International Olive Council (IOC), global con­sump­tion is expected to rise by ten per­cent in the 2024/25 crop year com­pared to the pre­vi­ous cam­paign.

If con­firmed, this would mark a sig­nif­i­cant rebound fol­low­ing the 2.6 per­cent decline recorded in the 2023/24 crop year com­pared to the pre­vi­ous sea­son.

See Also:Olive Council Data Shows Latest Harvest Results, Emerging Trends

As a result, global con­sump­tion in 2024/25 is pro­jected to sur­pass 3,064,500 met­ric tons, up from the esti­mated 2,780,000 tons in 2023/24.

Notably, sev­eral olive oil-pro­duc­ing coun­tries have seen sig­nif­i­cant fluc­tu­a­tions in con­sump­tion over the past six years.

According to IOC esti­mates, Spain, the world’s lead­ing olive oil pro­ducer, has recorded a steady decline in con­sump­tion, remain­ing below 500,000 tons since the 2022/23 cam­paign.

Spain con­sumed 519,000 tons in 2019/20, 541,000 in 2020/21 and 580,000 in 2021/22. However, con­sump­tion plum­meted to 363,000 tons in the 2022/23 crop year as extreme cli­mate con­di­tions severely impacted pro­duc­tion and drove up prices across the Mediterranean.

Since then, con­sump­tion has grad­u­ally recov­ered. The IOC esti­mates 402,000 tons for 2023/24 and projects an increase to 460,000 tons in 2024/25.

Although these fig­ures remain well below the record 580,000 tons reported in 2021/22, they align with the ten-sea­son aver­age of 483,850 tons.

Italy, a major olive oil pro­ducer, has main­tained rel­a­tively sta­ble con­sump­tion over the past five sea­sons, aver­ag­ing 426,000 tons.

However, the IOC projects a four per­cent decline for 2024/25. If con­firmed, this would mark the first time Italian olive oil con­sump­tion falls below 400,000 tons, reach­ing an esti­mated 395,000 tons.

If con­firmed, this would rep­re­sent a third con­sec­u­tive year of declin­ing olive oil con­sump­tion in Italy.

Overall, total olive oil con­sump­tion in the European Union is expected to exceed 1,326,000 tons in the 2024/25 crop year, reflect­ing a seven per­cent increase over the pre­vi­ous sea­son.

“The European Union has expe­ri­enced a down­ward trend in olive oil con­sump­tion in recent years,” the IOC said.

“Although global con­sump­tion has nearly dou­bled since the 1990/91 crop year, the E.U. has reduced its share of total con­sump­tion, drop­ping from over 70 per­cent in 2004/05 to around 45 per­cent in recent crop years,” the IOC remarked.

Among other key olive oil-pro­duc­ing coun­tries, IOC projects a decline in con­sump­tion only in Algeria (-1 per­cent) and Egypt (-11 per­cent).

Major olive oil-import­ing coun­tries are also expected to increase their pur­chases. In the United States, con­sump­tion is pro­jected to grow by eight per­cent in 2024/25 com­pared to the five-year aver­age.

China and Australia are also pro­jected to sig­nif­i­cantly increase the total value of their olive oil imports.

Interestingly, olive oil con­sump­tion in Turkey is also gain­ing momen­tum, with a 21 per­cent increase expected in 2024/25 com­pared to the five-year aver­age.

Turkey antic­i­pates a sig­nif­i­cant olive oil pro­duc­tion rebound in the cur­rent crop year, posi­tion­ing the coun­try among the world’s top pro­duc­ers.

Meanwhile, global table olive con­sump­tion is expected to remain sta­ble, reach­ing 3,000,000 tons in 2024/25, com­pared to the esti­mated 2,900,000 tons in 2023/24.

The IOC high­lighted how sev­eral coun­tries have sig­nif­i­cantly expanded their table olive pro­duc­tion over the past 30 years.

Since the 1990/91 crop year, Egypt’s table olive pro­duc­tion has surged from 11,000 to 520,000 tons in 2023/24. Over the same period, Algeria’s out­put increased from 14,000 to 285,000 tons, while Turkey’s rose from 110,000 to 350,000 tons.

The IOC exam­ined price fluc­tu­a­tions in its lat­est mar­ket analy­sis and iden­ti­fied a few notable trends.

One key trend is the fluc­tu­a­tion of olive oil prices at the mill. In major mar­kets such as Jaén, Spain, and Chania, Greece, the price peaks recorded between October 2022 and October 2023 have decreased sig­nif­i­cantly.

As of October 2024, prices in both mar­kets had dropped con­sid­er­ably. If this trend con­tin­ues, prices in both coun­tries could fall below €400 per 100 kilo­grams.

However, the sit­u­a­tion in the Italian mar­ket presents a stark con­trast.

In Bari, prices remain high at €950 per 100 kilo­grams, near­ing the record lev­els seen in 2023. This trend aligns with a par­tic­u­larly chal­leng­ing sea­son for Italian olive oil pro­duc­ers.

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